It is not new to have an ambitious project taking more time than originally planned. Be it in telecom, civil infrastructure or any other form of planned and pre-defined activity with predefined schedule. Delays are common. Moreover, they are not specific to any low-income or so called less developed economies. Even advanced countries and economies tend to have their ambitious projects fall years, if not more, behind schedule.
Saw an interesting article in BBC today regarding this. Prominent mega projects such as Hong Kong to Zuhai bridge of china, Sydney Opera House of Australia, Berlin Airport of Germany far overshot their allotted time and also budget. Why are such delays so common and widespread. The BBC article talks about a phenomenon called 'Planning Fallacy'.
The article mentions that "The concept of the planning fallacy was first introduced by the Nobel Prize-winning psychologist and economist Daniel Kahneman and his collaborator Amos Tversky in the 1970s, who were inspired by the habits of their colleagues. They were surprised to note that their colleagues routinely underestimated how long a project would take to complete even after they had missed many deadlines on similar projects in the past. They weren’t learning from their errors."
It is further discussed that the prevalence of planning fallacy is much more common than commonly accepted. From minor household projects to multinational, multi-billion-dollar mega projects, the delays are seen everywhere. It is also seen in banal day to day activities such as shopping for festivities, filing tax returns, renewing licenses and submitting reports or manuscripts. Most are delayed beyond projected timeline or left to the last minute.
Another interesting concept being involved is called 'motivated reasoning' under which people tend to assume circumstances and situations that suit their purpose. This prompts them to assume that a particular activity shall be completed in less time and money than it ends up taking. It ends up taking more because the circumstances actually turn out to be different from anticipated as the anticipated situation was affected by 'motivated reasoning'.
While planning fallacy is so commonplace, researchers point out that the situation can be improved. One important key is the use of prior experience. Though the circumstances for each activity are subtly different from every other activity, the past experience can be used to consider more wider array of situations and factors affecting the planned activity, its timeline and budget. By applying proper use of experience in identifying and accounting for different factors affecting the activity, the error or deviation caused by 'Planning Fallacy' can be reduced.
Tuesday 05 November 2019 (19 Kartik 2076)
Saw an interesting article in BBC today regarding this. Prominent mega projects such as Hong Kong to Zuhai bridge of china, Sydney Opera House of Australia, Berlin Airport of Germany far overshot their allotted time and also budget. Why are such delays so common and widespread. The BBC article talks about a phenomenon called 'Planning Fallacy'.
The article mentions that "The concept of the planning fallacy was first introduced by the Nobel Prize-winning psychologist and economist Daniel Kahneman and his collaborator Amos Tversky in the 1970s, who were inspired by the habits of their colleagues. They were surprised to note that their colleagues routinely underestimated how long a project would take to complete even after they had missed many deadlines on similar projects in the past. They weren’t learning from their errors."
It is further discussed that the prevalence of planning fallacy is much more common than commonly accepted. From minor household projects to multinational, multi-billion-dollar mega projects, the delays are seen everywhere. It is also seen in banal day to day activities such as shopping for festivities, filing tax returns, renewing licenses and submitting reports or manuscripts. Most are delayed beyond projected timeline or left to the last minute.
Another interesting concept being involved is called 'motivated reasoning' under which people tend to assume circumstances and situations that suit their purpose. This prompts them to assume that a particular activity shall be completed in less time and money than it ends up taking. It ends up taking more because the circumstances actually turn out to be different from anticipated as the anticipated situation was affected by 'motivated reasoning'.
While planning fallacy is so commonplace, researchers point out that the situation can be improved. One important key is the use of prior experience. Though the circumstances for each activity are subtly different from every other activity, the past experience can be used to consider more wider array of situations and factors affecting the planned activity, its timeline and budget. By applying proper use of experience in identifying and accounting for different factors affecting the activity, the error or deviation caused by 'Planning Fallacy' can be reduced.
Tuesday 05 November 2019 (19 Kartik 2076)
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